A win, or even a strong third-place showing in Iowa, would boost Obama’s chances in New Hampshire a week later. Clinton currently leads polls in New Hampshire. Her campaign in New Hampshire began early. She holds a huge majority among women voters in the state. But voters in the New Hampshire primary are known to buck pollsters’ predictions and they often change their allegiances in the last week of the campaign. The impressive Deval Patrick victory in the 2006 gubernatorial election in Massachusetts shows that white voters in New England are willing to support a black man for high executive office.

Putting aside the results in predominantly white Iowa and New Hampshire, Obama will be a formidable candidate in the races that follow. The Florida and South Carolina primaries are now scheduled just one week after the first primary in New Hampshire. In all probability, at this early stage there still will be a large slate of white Democratic candidates. Blacks will make up 25 percent of the Democratic primary voters in Florida and, if past voting patterns prevail, a majority of the Democratic primary voters in South Carolina. With the hope that the white vote is split among several candidates, a large black vote for Obama would almost certainly give him a plurality in these states. This outcome would build huge momentum for Barack Obama in the important primaries that come next.

Following these two key early primaries are the Super Tuesday primary elections in a large number of states now set for February 5. Among the states currently scheduled to hold primaries on February 5 are Alabama, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Missouri, New York, New Jersey, Oklahoma, and Georgia. All these states have significant black voting blocs. As stated, Georgia and Alabama blacks may be a majority of all voters in the Democratic primary. In Delaware, Arkansas, New Jersey, and New York, blacks will be at least one quarter of all Democratic primary voters. With the momentum from plurality victories in South Carolina and Florida, Obama would stand an excellent chance of winning a plurality in a number of the Super Tuesday states if black voters deliver 75 percent or more of their votes to the Illinois senator. Obama also will win a share of white votes in these states. On Super Tuesday Obama might be able to deal a knockout blow to the presidential ambitions of Hillary Clinton.

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