A Note on the Prospect of an Obama
Nomination in the Democratic Primaries

Now let’s suppose that after consideration of all the issues facing the nation, both foreign and domestic, as well as the general abilities of the candidates, Barack Obama becomes the choice of a far greater percentage of black voters. It remains true that very many African Americans will still deny him their votes unless they believe that he stands a reasonable chance of winning the nomination.

If we examine the situation state by state, this is not a campaign of David vs. Goliath. In many state contests black voters have the voting strength sufficient to deliver a margin of victory to Obama. Blacks traditionally make up about one quarter of all voters in Democratic primary elections nationwide. But in some key states such as South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi, blacks can be a majority of all voters in the Democratic primary election. The reason is that in these states huge numbers of whites vote in the Republican primary. In these southern states this greatly enhances the power of the black vote in the Democratic primary. If blacks turn out in large numbers and produce a solid vote for Obama, the Illinois senator could easily win a plurality in very many, if not most, of the southern states with significant black electorates.

Elsewhere, the new schedule of Democratic presidential primary elections works in Obama’s favor. The primary schedules are continually changing as states jockey their primary dates in order to strengthen their influence on the elective process. Yet one can make some estimates. As I write in late August, the first major test is Iowa, now scheduled for January 14. In Iowa a recent poll shows Obama running one percent ahead of Clinton. This is a remarkable achievement in a state that is 94 percent white. An Obama victory in Iowa would be a severe, if not fatal, blow to the candidacy of John Edwards. Also, it would do significant damage to Clinton’s momentum toward winning the nomination. Whatever the outcome, a strong, early-on showing for Obama in predominantly white Iowa would be an exciting demonstration of his appeal to white voters.

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