Many political observers believe that after the dust settles on Super Tuesday it will be clear who the Democratic nominee will be. But if the nomination is still in doubt, Obama would be in a good position the next week to win in Virginia and Maryland, two states with large percentages of black primary voters. These are the only two states now scheduled to hold primaries in the week following Super Tuesday. The District of Columbia is also scheduled to hold its primary on February 12. Obama would be well positioned to win all of these three primaries. Lawmakers in Pennsylvania are also contemplating moving their primary to February 12. Here too blacks make up as much as one quarter of the Democratic primary electorate.
If the nomination still has not been secured, primaries in Ohio, Texas, Illinois, and North Carolina, now scheduled for March but subject to change, could provide another chance for Obama to lock up the nomination. There are large numbers of black voters in these states. Again a heavy black vote for Obama is critical.
Polls show that the electability of Hillary Clinton in the general election is in serious doubt. A recent Zogby poll found that 46 percent of Americans said they would “never vote for her.” Her national likability rating is about 30 percent, the lowest of the major candidates. Even 42 percent of people who self-identified themselves as moderates in the Zogby poll of voters nationwide said they would never vote for Clinton. Her greatest vulnerability remains that she voted for the Iraq war when, of course, Obama opposed it.
Barack Obama offers a fresh and positive message. Whenever he speaks he reveals a powerful intellect and competence. He has a charming quality of homemade likability. Yet voters also see a strong demeanor of gravity and integrity. Obama shows none of the qualities of opportunism, shrillness, and unbridled ambition that so many voters dislike in Hillary Clinton. He far outshines any of the potential GOP contenders.
Obama offers a concrete program for black America. Hillary Clinton offers none.
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